Greece, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

924
FXUS61 KBUF 290004
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
704 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold air flowing across the open waters of the lower Great Lakes
will continue to support localized heavy lake effect snow east and
southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario through tonight, along with
gusty winds that will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow.
Lake snows will weaken later tonight into Saturday morning as
transient high pressure crosses the area bringing a brief period of
mainly dry weather on Saturday, before another area of low pressure
brings a round of light rain and snow, along with breezy to windy
conditions later Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO INTO TONIGHT...

Cool, moist cyclonic west to west-northwest flow in the wake of an
earlier cold frontal passage will continue to move across the
relatively warmer lake waters producing heavy lake effect snow that
will remain focused east and southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
into tonight. Strong winds will continue to gust 30 to 40 mph across
the region through this evening, with a few gusts up to 45 mph
through the early evening. Winds will then slowly come down through
the overnight. Surface high pressure will approach the region from
the south tonight and snow showers will diminish in coverage and
intensity through Saturday.

Off Lake Erie...A strong upstream connection to Lake Huron continues
this afternoon with a spray of lake effect snow showers impacting
the warning areas south of Buffalo that will continue through this
evening. Snowfall rates will average one inch per hour. Additional
localized snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected across
southern Erie, southwest Wyoming and the western Southern Tier
through late this evening. A Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in
effect until 1 AM tonight. Outside of the warning area, snow showers
are possible and may produce very minor accumulations through early
evening. Snow showers diminish in coverage and intensity tonight and
come to an end Saturday morning.

Off Lake Ontario...A strong upstream connection to Georgian Bay will
continue to foster a well-organized band of lake effect snow off the
southeast end of the Lake, with localized 2+ inch per hour snowfall
rates possible at times within the heart of this band as it
oscillates ever so slightly back and forth across northeastern
Wayne, northern Cayuga, and far southern Oswego counties. A few
rumbles of thunder will also be possible through early this evening
in these areas. The edge of the band will continue to intermittently
brush the southern shore of Lake Ontario from Orleans to Monroe at
times into the evening, possibly producing as additional inch or
two, mainly closer to the lakeshore. Upslope snow showers will
continue on the Tug Hill. Additional snow accumulations of 7 to 14
inches are possible southeast of Lake Ontario, with 4 to 7 inches on
the Tug Hill. The lake effect band will weaken later tonight through
Saturday morning.

Otherwise, areas of more generalized lighter snow showers will
continue outside of lake effect areas through sunset or so, with
only very minor, if any accumulation expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another low pressure system advances northeast towards the central
Great Lakes Saturday night, then passes by to our west and northwest
on Sunday. Warm frontal precipitation will overspread the Lower Lakes
Saturday night bringing some widespread light accumulating snow to
the area. It will then potentially transition over to a mix of rain-
snow Sunday, especially for lower elevations as boundary layer temps
rise into the mid-upper 30s to low 40s.

In terms of snowfall amounts...1-3" possible across most of the
area, with the potential for 3-5" for the higher terrain of the Tug
Hill.

The sfc low exits northeast off into southwest Quebec by Sunday
evening with CAA behind the systems passing cold front dropping H850
T`s down to -10C to -13C overnight.

Lake effect wise...it looks like we will have a `narrow` window for
accumulating snows Sunday evening/night. Initially northeast of both
lakes and then east to southeast of the lakes as wind flow quickly
veers from the southwest to the west and then to the west-northwest.
High pressure rapidly building in and also a drier airmass advecting
into the region will then begin to limit snowfall accumulations
Monday morning as the lake responses off of both lakes weakens.

With the area of high pressure centered over the region on Monday
any lingering snow showers off of the lakes will continue to scatter
out through the morning. Other than the few lingering lake effect
snow showers, the rest of the forecast area will remain dry for
Monday.

Temperatures for Monday behind the passing front are expected to
only reach the mid 20s to low 30s for most areas, with a few low 20s
possible for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A shortwave cutting across the nations mid-section and gulf moisture
will potentially work in concert to spawn a coastal low Monday night
through Tuesday. However...model certainty still remains high as
some guidance show the low further off the coast, but the
possibility for the northwestern precipitation shield to cross the
area is still present. This system exits off to our northeast
Wednesday, with a brief break ahead of the next cold front which
brings in a much colder airmass to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS two plumes of lake effect snow continue southeast
of the Lakes this evening, with MVFR to IFR flight conditions...and
locally LIFR visibilities. As drier air pushes across the eastern
Great Lakes coupled with diminishing lake effect snow parameters,
expect the bands of snow to weaken...first off Lake Erie (through
15Z) and secondly off Lake Ontario (through 21Z). This will impact
KJHW, especially the next 6 hours, as well as KROC mainly for the
next 6 -9 hours before the Lake Ontario band takes a light eastward
track away from KROC.

Brief quiet conditions with a return to VFR flight conditions
through the day Saturday as the lake effect snow weakens, but the
approach of the next system may bring light snow to the western TAF
sites before the TAF closure.

Still a few decent west to northwest gusts this early evening into
the 20-30 knot range, but these will quickly diminish through the
overnight hours.

VFR flight conditions are expected east of Lake Ontario, including
the KART airfield.

Outlook...

Saturday night...light snow pushes into the area from west to east
through the night causing lowering CIGs and VSBYs to MVFR/IFR.

Sunday...MVFR with a rain/wet snow mix. Very windy.

Monday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR in limited lake effect snow east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Chance of snow showers.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with some scattered snow showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A deep area of low pressure will slowly move through central and
eastern Quebec tonight. Have replaced the gales with small craft
advisories for the eastern Great Lakes, and as winds diminish
overnight expect the small craft for the Niagara River to end...with
waves diminishing below small craft thresholds on the eastern Great
Lakes through the day tomorrow.

Another strong low pressure system is forecast to move across the
central Great Lakes Sunday. This may bring another round of gales to
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Sunday through Sunday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for
     NYZ004>006.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ007-
     008-012-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...AR/SW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...HSK/JM/Thomas